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Canadian Economy Unexpectedly Shed Jobs in November - The Wall Street Journal

The bulk of Canada’s November job losses were in the manufacturing sector. Above, a worker at a rubber molding plant in St-Jerome, Quebec. Photo: Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg News

OTTAWA—The Canadian economy unexpectedly shed jobs in November and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in more than a year, marking a sharp retrenchment for a jobs market that has largely been a bright spot in recent years.

Canada’s labor market shed a net 71,200 jobs in November on a seasonally-adjusted basis, Statistics Canada said Friday. It was the biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis. Market expectations were for a gain of 10,000, according to economists at BMO Capital Markets.

The November data follows a small decline in the previous month and advances in August and September. Monthly jobs data in Canada can be volatile—despite the November decline, job growth was still up 292,900, or 1.6%, on a year-over-year basis. Most of the net gain over the past year has been in the full-time category, Statistics Canada said.

Economists said some of the November slump was due to temporary factors, including an expected decline in public administration jobs after the Canadian election in October.

The jobless rate moved up to 5.9% in November, its highest level since August 2018. Market expectations were for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%. When using U.S. Labor Department methodology, Canada’s unemployment rate was 4.7% in November.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart after the report’s release.

On a more positive note, average hourly wages surged on an annual basis by 4.5%, after advancing 4.3% in each of the previous two months. At the beginning of the year, wage growth on an annual basis was close to 2%.

The November employment report comes two days after the Bank of Canada said it would keep its key interest rate on hold at 1.75%, citing early evidence that the global economy is stabilizing. A central bank official said Thursday that the Canadian economy’s resilience—including a healthy jobs market—has allowed the Bank of Canada to chart its own course by keeping rates steady while others have eased policy.

The Bank of Canada wouldn’t have had the November jobs data in hand when it drafted its interest-rate announcement earlier this week, CIBC World Markets economist Royce Mendes said. “This set of numbers might have them rethinking their on-hold messaging, particularly if the weakness continues,” he said.

Capital Economics economist Stephen Brown said the November jobs report makes an interest-rate cut look more likely. But given the role of temporary factors in the decline and the strength in wage growth, he said, “we still think the most likely outcome is that the Bank will keep policy unchanged in 2020.”

In November, full-time employment fell by 38,400, while part-time employment dropped by 32,800. The ranks of the self-employed—often independent contractors or freelancers—declined by 18,700. The private sector lost 50,200 jobs in the month, and public-sector organizations shed 2,300 workers.

The Statistics Canada report said the bulk of the November job losses were in the manufacturing sector, which shed a net 27,500 jobs, and public administration, down 24,900 positions. On a year-over-year basis, employment in manufacturing was little changed, while employment in public administration was up 48,500.

Write to Kim Mackrael at kim.mackrael@wsj.com

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